Open Canada Vital Statistics (Deaths) analysed using Data Science

This project is maintained by IVI-M

Analysis of Official Canada Data Related to COVID-19 Vaccine Efficacy and Safety

Raison d’être: Words from Chief Science Advisor of Canada | Key Observations | White Papers | Analysis of Sources | Three official sources - three algorithmic biases | Variation by age and Risks for children | Deaths with vs. Deaths from COVID-19 | Natural vs. Vaccine-induced immunity | How to report COVID-19 vaccine side-effects | Dashboard Spreadsheet | Deaths Tracker App | Vaccine Mandates | Networking | Additional Resources | YouTube Channel


This dashboard is from Live Google Spreadsheet. Click here to open it in separate window or in a different format.

Raison d’être: What Chief Science Advisor of Canada said about COVID-19 vaccines.

On March 31, 2021, just before COVID-19 vaccination of general public commenced, the Chief Science Advisor of Canada in the Scientific Considerations for Using COVID-19 Vaccination Certificates” report has expressed several concerns and recommendations related to the uncertanties associated with using new COVID-19 vaccines that were approved under Emergercy Act and did not go through all normally conducted testing stages. Some of these are listed below:

Another report was issued by the Chief Science Advisor Office on July 16, 2021, just as the vaccination rates started to pick up (but still being low - less than 10%): COVID-19 vaccine-associated myocarditis/pericarditis”, which – in the light of the COVID-19 vaccine side effects that were just uncovered – further emphasized the following:

It could have been expected that there would be more reports produced from the Chief Science Advisor Office after July 2021 - to follow up on their recommendations of “addressing data and knowledge gaps” and “promoting awareness”, especially as most data (such as ‘Cases following vaccination’ statistics) have become availalable only after July 2021, and yet there were none produced still, as of February 2022.

This portal is created to address this gap – to provide Canadians with the up to date information related to Vaccine safety and efficacy – as directly observed form official public Government of Canada data, most of which has become available after July 2021 – inline with the considerations by Chief Science Advisor of Canada listed above and the Scientific Integrity Policy principles that they have developed.

Key Observations

Updated: 2 March 2022

Recommendations of the Chief Science Advisor of Canada, who advised in early stages of vaccination against coersion and being vigilant towards addressing knowledge gaps were not followed. The data related to "knowledge gaps", such as empirically observed vaccine efficacy and safety statistics, have become available only after August 2021, however the latest report produced by  Chief Science Advisor of Canada was published prior to that.

The new data collected from August 2021 invalidated many originally made statements about the C19 vaccine safety and efficacy. These are listed below,  also documented in many other peer-reviewed and official sources.

  1. Vaccinated get infected and transmit infection not less  (possibly more) than unvaccinated.

  2. Majority of vaccinated are not significantly protected from severe outcomes.

  3. Vast majority of people infected by C19, will not have serious effects from C19, and will thus have natural immunity.

  4. Natural immunity is longer, better and safer than short-term vaccine-induced immunity.

  5. The number of severe (life-threatening) vaccine reactions for children  reported to date has already exceeded  the number of children deaths from C15, and  continues to grow as more reports are coming.

Instead of admitting the new evidence and allowing wider scrutiny and revision of originally made statements and policies, the Government of Canada has refused the invitation from heaths experts to discuss the new evidence (see invitation letter to Chief Public Health Officer)  and appears to be  working towards developing new Bills that will make it even harder for Canadians to express their concerns in relationship to the  actual COVID-19 vaccine efficacy and safety, and that will discriminate unvaccinated even further.

Updated: 16 February 2022

Open Canada data that has become available after July 2021 do not appear to support the COVID-19 vaccine manufacturers' original claims about vaccine efficacy and safety. Specifically:

White Papers:

Analysis of Sources

Last Updated: 2022-02-11

Source #1:

[gc1] Cases following vaccination, COVID-19 Daily Epidemiology Update, Public Health Agency of Canada, (archived reports)

Spreadsheet with raw data and calculations: (google sheets, xls, pdf)

Death cases by vaccination status, biased reporting (from December 14, 2020 to present)

NB: The statistics above is quoted directly from the source, where it was computed using death data since December 2020, when there were no fully vaccinated Canadians yet (more exactly: there were 0 fully-vaccinated in December, < 1% for most of January, <3% until May). This is known as algorithmic bias, which skews results favourably towards fully-vaccinated cases. This bias can be removed using the technique described in this paper. The unbiased statistics are shown below.

Infected cases by vaccination status, unbiased reporting (from December 04, 2021 to January 15, 2022)

Source #2:

[ gc2 ] Reported side effects following COVID-19 vaccination in Canada, Canadian COVID-19 vaccination safety report, Public Health Agency of Canada, (Figure 1, Table 1)

Adverse reactions from COVID-19 vaccines

Total (since Jan 2021):

Between May 2021 and October 2021 (for benchnarking against COVID-19 deaths in the same period - see below)

Source #3:

[ gc3 ] Statistics Canada, Canadian Vital Statistics - Death database. Provisional weekly death counts, by selected grouped causes of death, (App Calculator , Last record: November 6, 2021):

Deaths of COVID-19

Between December 2020 to April 2021 (from the day first vaccination started to when vaccination rate reached 3%)

Between May 2021 and October 2021 (for benchmarking against health damages caused by COVID-19 vaccine - see above)

Additional observations:

Source #4:

[ gc4 ] Recalls and safety alerts, Government of Canada, (for [Moderna], [Pfizer], [Astrazeneca] )

Other Sources

[gcA] Fully-Vaccinated rates (Source:

[gcB] COVID-19 cases vs. COVID-19 deaths (source: google1):

Sources from other governments:

[ukg1] COVID deaths vs. COVID alone deaths (Source: - Explanation):

[usg1] Natural immunity vs. vaccine-induced immunity (Source: - Explanation):

Variation by age

Vaccine for children ?

‘Why are we vaccinating children against COVID-19?’, Toxicology Reports, Volume 8, 2021, Pages 1665-1684, ISSN 2214-7500 (14 September 2021)

Vaccine Mandates


Weekly meetups

Join us for our weekly Lunch and Learn “Data Science with Open Canada Data” seminars.
When: Every Friday, 12:05 to 12:50 (Ottawa time)
How: over Zoom
The recordings from the seminars are posted on YouTube Channel “IVIM (Independently Verified Information)”.

If you’d like to present your work or join us for these meetings, please contact Dmitry Gorodnichy at dg @ Corrections and feedback should be sent to the same address.

Government of Canada partners and employees, please go to GCCollab group for related discussions and future seminars announcements

Additional resources

Dr. John Campbell teaching YouTube channel:

more to be added

Disclaimer: The authoritative source for COVID-19 information is The results and views presented in this portal are those by the authors and are not to be misconstrued as representing views of any Canadian Agency, University, or Department. They were developed and gathered by the R4GC Data Science community as part of the community training and socializing, mostly on authors’ own time and using authors’ own resources. All codes behind the analysis and supporting documents are free, open and available in GitHub. (originally: