Open Canada Vital Statistics (Deaths) analysed using Data Science

This project is maintained by IVI-M

Last Updated: 2021-01-14

GC Sources:

[ 1 ] ‘Cases following vaccination’, COVID-19 Daily Epidemiology Update, Public Health Agency of Canada,

Quote: “For cases from December 14, 2020 up until November 27, 2021, fully vaccinated cases were 68% less likely to die as a result of their illness, compared to unvaccinated cases (Table 3).”

Analysis: In the considered period (December 14, 2020 – November 27, 2021) over 75% (10100 / 13075) of all COVID deaths occurred prior to May 1, 2021, when the majority of population (over 97%) was unvaccinated. Recomputing these numbers for the period after May 1 (when the proportion of vaccinated was approximately equal to the proportion of unvaccinated) results in the opposite conclusion – the majority (over at least 75%) of people who died of COVID between May and November were fully vaccinated

[ 2a ] Hospitalizations by vaccination status, COVID-19 (coronavirus) in Ontario,

[ 2b ] For more information on cases following vaccination, please see the Weekly epidemiology report (PDF) available on the Government of Canada’s COVID-19 data trends page

Quote: “Incidence [of COVID-19 cases] among fully vaccinated cases has surpassed those among unvaccinated since mid-December 2021.”

[ 3 ] ‘Reported side effects following COVID-19 vaccination in Canada’, Canadian COVID-19 vaccination safety report, Public Health Agency of Canada,


Figure 1: Cumulative serious reports, including deaths: 6287 (January–October), 5200 (May-October).

Table 1: Count of reported adverse events of special interest up to and including October 22, 2021 (n = 3,793). This includes: 166 Auto-immune diseases, 1,111 heart diseases (including 64 Cardiac arrests and failures, 77 Heart Attacks, 970 Myocarditis1/Pericarditis), 947 thrombosis and blood clots, 37 Acute kidney injury, 25 Liver injury, 781 Nerves and central nervous system failures (including 594 Bell’s Palsy), 487 Anaphylaxis, and 208 deaths (some of which are still under investigation).

Analysis: The above numbers are almost twice as high as the number of COVID deaths in the same period (May-October) which is 2975 (which can be computed using the Vitals App), and much higher (by one order of magnitude) than the number of deaths from COVID alone (estimated using UK data as 13.6% * 2975 = 404), and even much more higher (by two orders of magnitude) when compared to the number of deaths of _COVID alone for the age population younger than 65 years of age (estimated using UK data as 22% * 13.6% * 2975 = 89). Note that most people who received vaccine since May are less than 65 years of age, meaning that they have extremely small chance of having complications from COVID, and yet many of them have already lost their lives or quality of live because of vaccines.

Furthermore, the above number (5200) does not count for “non-serious” events and not reported yet events, which can be still very debilitating for many families (such as shingles, arthritis, heart pains, and menstrual irregularities – reported among GC employees and members of their families), which can be estimated as an order or two orders of magnitude higher than the number of reported serious events.

It is also noted that the above number of adverse events (5200) is quoted from the reports for up to November 6 2021 (to allow comparison with death statistics which are reported with three months delay). Since that time, the number of adverse events from vaccination continues to grow at the rate faster than that of vaccination and faster than that of deaths* with COVID, having reached 7378 at the time of writing this note.

[ 4 ] Recalls and safety alerts, Government of Canada:

Quote: “Health Canada updates Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna COVID-19 vaccine labels to include information on myocarditis and pericarditis” and “…to reflect very rare reports of Bell’s Palsy”

Analysis : There is a several months lag between when severe events are reported and when the vaccine recall alerts are posted. Furthermore, these alerts do not include all serious problems and do not include non- serious problems described above. The recall alerts issued so far list three complications that count for less than third of reported serious complications, and less 7% of all reported adverse events, and it is estimated that many adverse events, including series ones, remain unreported yet.

[ 5 ] Statistics Canada, Canadian Vital Statistics - Death database . Provisional weekly death counts, by selected grouped causes of death. (Dashboard:

Analysis : Since May (i.e. since the beginning of mass vaccination of general public), when the rate of vaccination started to rapidly increase (from 3% in May to 75% in October), the rate of unreported ‘Information Unavailable’ and Ill-defined / unspecified causes of mortality ‘R99’ has also started to rapidly increase.

Additionally, it is observed that since the introduction of the ‘COVID death’ category in 2020, the reporting of all other causes deaths started to decline, even for those causes that historically have a trend to go up (including cancer, heart diseases, accidents and others), meaning that since 2020 many of these deaths have been counted under the “COVID category”. This agrees with the analysis from UK data (see below) that shows that only 13.6% of COVID-reported deaths are COVID only deaths, and that 78% of COVID only deaths happened among 65+ population, with is the average age of COVID only deaths being 82 years, which is statistically equal to the average life expectancy in UK.

Data from UK:


Conclusion: Of all reported in UK 127,704 COVID deaths, 13.6% (17,371) are due to COVID alone. Additionally, it is noted that 78% of all COVID alone deaths occurred in people with 65+ of age, with the average age of death from COVID being 82.5 years, which is statistically equal to the average life expectancy in UK.

2020 Total deaths, 9,400		    0-64, 1,549		65 and over, 7,851  
2021 Q1 Total deaths, 6,483		    0-64, 1,560 	65 and over, 4,923  
2021 Q2 Total deaths, 346 		    0-64, 153 		65 and over, 193 
2021 Q3, Total deaths, 1,142        0-64, 512 		65 and over, 630 

Data from USA:


Conclusion: Data from California and New York show that natural immunity with or without vaccine provided significantly reduced number of hospitalization in the age of delta. Natural immunity without vaccine resulted in less hospitations compared to Natural immunity with vaccine.

Other sources:

Note: VAERS lists many adverse events that are not reported yet in Canada (such as shingles, arthritis, menstrual problems etc.)

Note: Explains why the efficacy of COVID-19 vaccines is not 95%, as reported by vaccine manufacturers and quoted in many governments policies, but less than 1%, which statistically is less then by a chance

The above references expose the lack of evidence and scientific integrity in the reports produced by the COVID vaccine manufacturers. The data from vaccine tests have never been made public — All vaccine manufacturers refuse to provide them

The last document, released by Pfizer under the court order on 17 November 2021, provides data that was collected, but not disclosed by the manufacturer prior to 17 November 2021, on real world adverse events observed in the first 2.5 months after Emergency Use Authorization. Among others, it lists: over 1,200 deaths; over 25,000 nervous system adverse events; and Anaphylaxis and Vaccine-Associated Enhanced Disease (listed under “Safety concerns”).